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Vote Could Fuel Change August 2004The outcome of the presidential election could affect the size of cars that Americans drive in years to come, what fuels them and how safe they are. But even if Sen. John F. Kerry unseats President George W. Bush, environmentalists, safety activists and experts who follow the auto industry expect that the political realities with which a sitting president must contend will discourage radical changes in areas such as corporate average fuel economy and safety rules.A steady course "What we look for more or less is continuity," said Mike Wall, manager of forecasting and analysis for CSM Worldwide in Farmington, Mich., who says his firm's sales forecasts won't change if Kerry defeats Bush. Take fuel economy standards. The issue is so hot politically, especially in the Midwest, that neither candidate details specific plans to either change the standards or leave them at 27.5 mpg for cars and 20.7 for trucks. U.S. carmakers and their biggest union and even the insurance industry oppose a major increase in corporate average fuel economy, or "CAFE." They argue that it would force many larger, safer vehicles off the road, reduce Americans' choices and cost U.S. auto jobs. The union, the United Auto Workers, endorses Kerry, however, for his views on other issues. Kerry's Web site says he "will work for CAFE reforms that are good for the environment and good for American jobs." Kerry has in the past supported something much more specific - unsuccessful legislation to increase the minimum fuel economy of vehicles to 35 mpg by 2015. But, as president, he'll have to consider the impact of such a change on the auto industry. "He's got two sides of the fence there to straddle," Wall said. The Republicans accuse Kerry of flip-flopping on the issue. Representatives of the Kerry-Edwards campaign did not return phone calls seeking comment. The Bush/Cheney re-election site contains expressions of support from people such as Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, a Republican, for the administration's opposition to major changes in mile-per-gallon requirements. U.S. automakers and their supporters contend that an increase would favor Japanese and South Korean carmakers who already produce large numbers of small, fuel-stingy vehicles. But a news release summarizing a speech the president made in May says Bush's energy plans include "raising fuel economy standards." Forcing the issue Mark Wenzler, who heads the energy campaign of the National Environmental Trust, a nonprofit educational group based in Washington, says that this year's rising gasoline prices - assuming they don't drop by next year - will force the next president to deal with the issue. "It's just too important, and consumers are going to demand a solution," he said. Any upgrading of safety standards also is likely to be done carefully, said Brian O'Neill, president of the Insurance Institute. He thinks Kerry will name a professional whose training is relevant to auto safety as administrator of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which sets auto safety standards. The current administrator, appointed by Bush, is a medical doctor as is his predecessor, appointed by President Bill Clinton. "If you put a zealot in there, I don't think you're going to get progress," O'Neill said. "You're just going to get confrontation." Broadly, the Republican and Democratic platforms are similar in their energy goals. Both favor reducing the nation's dependence upon foreign oil, encouraging production of more hybrid gasoline/electric cars like the Toyota Prius and helping fund the development of vehicles that can run on alternatives to gasoline such as hydrogen fuel cells. "For the sake of your economic security and your job security and for the sake of national security, this country must become less dependent on foreign sources of energy," Bush told workers in November at BMW's South Carolina assembly plant. Says Kerry's Web site, "These soaring energy costs are burdening middle-class families with higher gas prices, and our dependence on Middle East oil is putting our national security at risk." But the administration says that it's the Democrats, including Kerry, who have thwarted its efforts to make the nation less dependent on foreign oil. The Republicans point to Congress' failure to pass elements of Bush's proposed comprehensive energy plan that require legislation. Democrats have blocked it because it includes permitting oil exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Northern Alaska. Environmentalists oppose drilling in the refuge and Kerry accuses Bush and "his friends at the big oil companies" of pursuing an unrealistic policy, contending that the reserve doesn't contain enough oil to significantly reduce the nation's imports. Developing new resources Kerry's platform also calls for increased domestic production of oil but, to reduce oil imports, relies more heavily on fuel efficiency and encouraging development of renewable energy sources - such as ethanol produced from corn - for vehicles and electrical generation. Bush also can say he pushed for other fuel sources. He unsuccessfully thus far has sought Congress' approval of $1.2 billion to help carmakers to develop affordable and practical cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells by 2020. But under the Bush plan, the automakers would be under no deadline to begin selling such cars, and environmentalists have accused the administration of letting the carmakers off the hook too easily. Kerry proposes $20 billion over 10 years in federal incentives for U.S. automakers to gain the lead in production of hybrids. Among the American big three carmakers, only Ford sells one now - the Escape SUV. But the Bush administration can point to auto sales figures for July as proof that its determination not to force Americans into smaller vehicles makes sense; even in the face of $2-plus gasoline this year, SUV sales have cooled but have hardly collapsed, indicating that Americans won't readily give up their larger vehicles. Wenzler says the two candidates' policies differ mostly in the specific solutions they emphasize. "While Bush will talk more about the supply side, Kerry will talk more about efficiency," said Wenzler. "That's the difference." SOURCE: Sun-Sentinal | ||
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